November 2026 - Monthly Market Update
/Monthly Update || November 2026
“It’s been an incredible ride on the whole AI thing. I think we’re getting late enough in the build-out that one has to start to worry a little.”
Opening Remarks
Greetings from Ikigai Asset Management¹. We welcome the opportunity to bring to you our ninety-eighth Monthly Update and hope these are helpful in better understanding some of what we’re doing and what we’re seeing. We have the privilege of deploying capital on behalf of our investors into new technologies that have tremendous potential to make the world a better place and create trillions of dollars of value in the process.
We believe, in some cases, that we are obligated to be shepherds of some of these technologies – to do our little part to push ideas towards fulfilling their potential. We strive to be an objective, reasonable, well-intentioned voice of truth amongst a chorus of biased, fallacious, pernicious opportunists. It’s an honor that we take seriously.
To that end, I find myself quite busy at the moment, so we’re just going to do some pseudo-formed and certainly incomplete stream of consciousness and then we can get out of here for this month.
October Highlights
Binance Hacked for $6.3bn in Largest Crypto Heist Ever, ~$3bn Frozen
MSTR Repurchases $767mm of STRC in October, Raises Preferred Buyback Cap to $3bn, Buys ~851 BTC for ~$72mm, Pauses BTC Purchases Late Month
BTC ETFs See ~$515mm Net Outflows in October, Largest Daily Outflow $643mm After Binance Hack
ETH ETFs See ~$1bn+ Net Outflows in October, Largest Monthly of 2026
ICE Invests in Trade[XYZ]; Partners to Launch Regulated 24/7 Perpetual Futures on Hyperliquid in US
MSTR CFO Andrew Kang Resigns Effective Nov 5 for Personal Reasons; Reza Virasteh Named Successor Effective Jan 1 2027
Strive Buys 6,182 BTC for $511mm; Now Holds ~43k BTC
Anchorage Digital Lays Off 17% of Staff (~68 Roles)
Tom Lee’s Bitmine to Halt ETH Buys at 5% Supply Cap; ~58k ETH Away
China Seeks to Seize 61,800 BTC Tied to $5.7bn Fraud Scheme
A16Z Rebrands Crypto Fund to A16Z Frontier; Expands to AI and Frontier Tech
Kalshi Raises $1bn Series G at $40bn Valuation Co-Led by Wellington and Sequoia
Polymarket Resumes After $2.65mm Vendor Exploit
Solana Activates Alpenglow Consensus Upgrade
| Asset Class | Oct | Sept | Aug | Jul | Q2-26 | Q1-26 | YTD | Q4-25 | Q3-25 | Q2-25 | Q1-25 | 2025 | 2024 | Instrument |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | -8% | 6% | 25% | 7% | -14% | -22% | -12% | -23% | 6% | 30% | -12% | -6% | 121% | BTC |
| NASDAQ | -7% | 3% | 4% | -7% | 28% | -6% | 12% | -6% | 2% | 18% | -8% | 20% | 25% | QQQ |
| S&P 500 | -1% | -1% | 3% | 0% | 15% | -5% | 11% | 2% | 8% | 11% | -5% | 16% | 23% | SPX |
| Total World Equities | -2% | -2% | 3% | -1% | 13% | -2% | 10% | 2% | 8% | 10% | -1% | 20% | 14% | VT |
| Emerging Market Equity | -9% | 0% | 5% | -6% | 20% | 4% | 12% | 2% | 11% | 10% | -5% | 31% | 4% | EEM |
| Gold | -7% | -7% | 10% | 1% | -14% | 9% | -10% | 11% | 16% | 6% | 19% | 64% | 27% | GLD |
| Long-Duration US Treasuries | 5% | -6% | 0% | -5% | 0% | -1% | -6% | -1% | 3% | -5% | 2% | -1% | -8% | TLT |
| High-Yield Corporate Credit | 0% | -3% | 0% | -1% | 1% | -1% | -4% | 1% | 4% | 3% | -2% | 6% | 8% | HYG |
| Copper | -2% | -1% | 1% | 5% | 10% | -2% | 12% | -6% | 11% | 15% | 2% | 23% | 19% | CPER |
| USD | 1% | 2% | 0% | -1% | 0% | -2% | 3% | -1% | -1% | -7% | -4% | -9% | 7% | DXY |
| Volatility Index | 19% | 10% | -7% | -3% | -55% | -22% | 30% | -8% | -4% | -24% | 28% | -14% | 3% | VIX |
| Oil | 16% | 9% | 4% | 21% | -16% | 84% | 144% | -6% | 1% | -5% | 2% | -8% | 13% | USO |
Source: Grok. As of 10/31/26.
| Name | Oct | Sept | Aug | Jul | Q2-26 | Q1-26 | YTD | Q4-25 | Q3-25 | Q2-25 | Q1-25 | 2025 | 2024 | Instrument |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -1% | -1% | 3% | 0% | 15% | -5% | 12% | 2% | 8% | 11% | -5% | 16% | 23% | SPX |
| NASDAQ-100 | -7% | 3% | 4% | -7% | 28% | -6% | 20% | -6% | 2% | 18% | -8% | 20% | 25% | QQQ |
| Magnificent Seven | -5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 11% | -12% | 9% | -4% | 12% | 23% | -8% | 29% | 42% | MAGS |
| Bitcoin | -8% | 6% | 25% | 7% | -14% | -22% | -5% | -23% | 6% | 30% | -12% | -6% | 121% | BTC |
| Ethereum | -17% | 9% | 33% | 19% | -25% | -29% | -10% | -28% | 67% | 36% | -45% | -11% | 46% | ETH |
| Solana | -19% | 15% | -1% | -11% | -33% | -5% | -35% | 48% | 42% | -52% | -19% | 312% | SOL | |
| BNB | -8% | 11% | 18% | 7% | -12% | -29% | -11% | -14% | 53% | 9% | -14% | 23% | 124% | BNB |
| Hyperliquid | -1% | 8% | 60% | -19% | 77% | 44% | 257% | -22% | 81% | 67% | -38% | 45% | n/a | HYPE |
| Aggregate Mkt Cap | -12% | 8% | 23% | 6% | -13% | -21% | -3% | -24% | 16% | 24% | -19% | -11% | 136% | TOTAL |
| Aggr Alts Mkt Cap (ex top-10) | -10% | 27% | 22% | -2% | -5% | -14% | 23% | -24% | 34% | 25% | -34% | -16% | 72% | OTHERS |
| Semiconductors | -17% | 11% | 1% | -21% | 95% | 9% | 89% | -8% | 15% | 28% | -12% | 32% | 49% | SOXX |
| Expanded Tech Software | -2% | -3% | 16% | 4% | 13% | -24% | 1% | -3% | 9% | 16% | -7% | 19% | 22% | IGV |
| ARK Innovation (disruptive tech) | -9% | 4% | 20% | -12% | 20% | -12% | 16% | -11% | 25% | 31% | -23% | 19% | 38% | ARKK |
| Robotics & AI | -9% | -2% | 2% | -7% | 14% | -8% | -3% | -8% | 19% | 22% | -15% | 15% | 30% | BOTZ |
| Quantum Computing | -12% | 2% | 5% | -15% | 54% | -2% | 38% | 7% | 38% | 59% | -31% | 88% | n/a | QTUM |
Source: Grok. As of 10/31/26.
A LOT occurred in October both in AIVC and crypto. Both crashed - with little exception and to varying degrees. There was surprising symmetry in the price performance between the two buckets: QQQ -7%. SOXX -17%. BTC -7%. ETH -16%. And that was the crypto price performance despite the largest heist in human history occurring on Binance – to the tune of $6.3bn. List looks like this-
So yeah. And look, crypto prices held up INCREDIBLY well all things considering. At least part of that was because Changpeng immediately announced users would be made totally whole. And the market appeared to believe him, because he’s widely believed to be worth many multiple of the lost funds.
AI Value Chain stocks (AIVC) nuked. A lot of the favorites were down a ton. In particular, Neoclouds/data centers/”powered shells”/etc got smoked on credit fears-
Other sectors in AIVC were down a lot too. DRAM (memory ETF) -21% in October despite fantastic earnings from memory companies and despite basically every ounce of evidence pointing to memory companies set to generate fantastic cash flow well into 2028, 2029 and beyond.
The issue that reared its head in October, was this idea that “capital is the ultimate bottleneck” in the AI trade. Too many dollars trying to be spent by too many companies, presumably peaking into 2027 and 2028. Last month I said this-
“There is the potential for Hyperscaler capex to slow down for other reasons. But I don’t think that’s an October risk, so we’ll save that discussion for another month. Hyperscalers report at the end of October and my base case is the earnings will generally be good, and the capex projections will be confirmed, and AIVC will broadly trade well into YE.”
So yeah! The capital bottleneck was what I was referencing a month ago! And it showed up in October.
I don’t have any interest in reducing AIVC exposure here, and the fund has a lot (no leverage though). We have midterms in two days. There is risk of a further selloff in the event of a blue wave (some races matter a lot more for AIVC than others, take Texas governor for example).
I would guess AIVC would nuke if Abbott lost in Texas or perhaps a few other races. But I don’t think Abbott is going to lose. It’s certainly possible, just not my base case. Overall, I’m still expecting AIVC to trade well into YE. I said that exact same thing a month ago and we nuked but we haven’t even got to the election yet. So I’m saying I still think AIVC can trade well into YE.
Iran is a significant additional factor and I find it really hard to get a read on (often by design with Trump). He has made many threats of resuming attacks right after the election. Lots of that. IDK how to weigh it though. If we get through the midterms and you see an escalation in the public rhetoric and then you see US assets moving (likely at least a 48-hour prep time that will be public), then I would expect stress in the markets over that period.
Then it depends on how the strikes go. But the strikes could end up marking the top in oil, which should tighten yields at least some, which should be supportive for AIVC. If you get it with a gridlocked Washington, even better.
Lots of hacks in October. Lots. Crypto and trad internet-
So this was SUPER front and center in October, everywhere. And for crypto, I think it’s a terrible backdrop. I wrote this in a group chat the DAY before Binance was hacked-
I’m not some Nostradamus with that call. The writing was on the wall – we’re in a period right now where nonrecourse financial transfers are something that has a LOT of added risk. This seems very obvious to me, and frankly I’m surprised crypto prices aren’t down more (perhaps they will be).
I will just say flat out that the Binance hack smells funny. There is lots of conjecture on Twitter that it was an inside job of some sort, or potentially a “self hack”. AFAIK, there is no strong evidence this is the case. North Korea is getting thrown around a lot, although I’m not too sure on the evidence of that at the moment. I’m not sure if we’ll ever know for sure.
But allow me to just lay out a couple headlines-
August 24th –
And then September 15th (only six weeks ago) –
And then boom. $6.3bn hack. Hmm. And then immediately massive freezes of stolen funds, in particular USDT and USDC-
I think the whole deal seems off. It’s not my base case that Binance is about to collapse FTX-style (although certainly not 0%). But the whole deal feels like it’s “not what it seems”. Again, IDK if we’ll ever know. Pricewise, I’d be more worried about downside than expecting upside in the near-term from here. That’s certainly true for the broader “crypto is nonrecourse and you don’t want nonrecourse right now” theme. But it’s also true specifically for the Binance exploit. Doesn’t make sense to me to want to buy that right now.
I don’t necessarily think crypto will make new lows in the coming weeks or months or even at all. There is still lots of room below current price that is still above the lows from late June. I think price heads somewhere in there over time and then we’ll see if we can get a firm higher low. I do think you need to see some real progress on alleviating hack fears though. Not exactly sure what that would be, but from here it feels likely to get worse first. I don’t think I’m interested in crypto into YE.
Back on AIVC. Lots of stuff is now back at the Leopold lows from late July. A fair number of names are even lower than Leopold lows. It’s been a big reset. GOOG, AMZN, META. All smoked on earnings. I think current price levels do not match the fundamentals. Maybe I’m wrong, but I have no interest in selling here.
It just feels too early in the whole cycle for all of AIVC to just crash from here. Seems more likely that what we just did in the last three weeks of October was absorb a TON of selling and now positioning is much more neutral. Again, I could be wrong but that’s my base case.
And we’ll leave it there for now. Lots going on between now and next month. See you then.
“The day you decide to do something is a lucky day.”
– Japanese Proverb
Travis Kling
Founder & Chief Investment Officer
Ikigai Asset Management
1. Ikigai Asset Management is the trade name for a collection of advisory and consulting businesses operated by Travis Kling, Anthony Emtman, and their team.
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